Oscar, Oscar, who will win??

My annual predictions, and my picks, for Oscar glory on Sunday.

Best Picture - Gravity

We are being lead to believe that 12 Years a Slave is the frontrunner here but I'm going to call for the mild upset here. The slavery piece, while brilliant, is hard enough to watch that it will turn off a handful of voters, giving the award to the equally brilliant Gravity.

Who should win: Well, The Spectacular Now, but since it's not even nominated.... Gravity.



Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

It's an amazing year for actors when just about everyone agrees that Christian Bale's incredible performance in American Hustle has zero chance to win this prize.

McConaughey has all the momentum and he checks all the boxes: huge physical transformation? Check. Well known, well liked actor? Check. In a well received movie that has no real chance to win Best Picture? Check.

Oh, and did I mention he's really, REALLY good in this film? Check.

Who SHOULD win: I'm picking Bruce Dern for Nebraska in what amounts to almost a five-way tie. Every nominee in this category is completely worthy and all deserve to win.

Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Most experts say that this is THE lock of the evening. I think it's as close to a slam dunk as there is, but there is one category below that I think qualifies as the sure thing.

One of these days, the brilliant Amy Adams is going to get her statue, but she's up against one of the great performances in recent memory; and the fact that Blanchett had to work with Woody Allen will only enhance her chances.

Who SHOULD win: Blanchett

It's also a great year for the ladies, obviously, as nobody is giving Meryl Streep a snowball's chance in Hell of winning this thing (not to mention Judy Dench or even Sandra Bullock).


Best Director - Alfonso Cuarón , Gravity

Like Ang Lee for Life of PI last year, the technical brilliance of this film ensures this outcome. Another near-lock.

who SHOULD win: Cuarón. Have you SEEN this movie??



Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Sure he dressed in drag, which the Academy loves, but he was more than that; Leto gives a nuanced, heartbreaking performance as the AIDS-stricken cross-dresser. He's mesmerizing.

Who SHOULD win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave in a photo-finish over Leto. Both are worthy but Fassbender brings such strength and power to a character that audiences can do nothing but hate, he gets my vote.


Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave

The newcomer brings emotion, strength, desperation and hope all at the same time in a performance for the ages. She's really, really good, and has taken all the awards momentum away from the original frontrunner, Jennifer Lawrence.

Who SHOULD win: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine. She has almost zero chance, but without her quirky, loving, white-trash character, this movie would completely collapse under the weight of Blanchett's socialite. Hawkins is just as important to this movie as Blanchett.

Best Animated Feature Film - Frozen

This has to be THE slam dunk of the evening. If anything else wins this award, I am going to punch my TV multiple times. Frozen should have been in the running for Best Picture.

Despicable Me 2 was excellent, as was (I've heard) the Croods, and Mizayaki's last film will garner some emotion, but this is a no-brainer.

who SHOULD win: Duh




Best Original Screenplay - Eric Warren Singer and David O Russell, American Hustle

This film was considered a dark horse to win the big prize up until recently, but the Academy cannot completely overlook a movie nominated for just about every major award.

who SHOULD win: American Hustle; with much respect to the writers of Nebraska and Her.




Best Adapted Screenplay - John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave

This is how the Academy rewards this film without giving it the Best Picture nod.

who SHOULD win: Ridley. It's a great film, and it's a very well-written story.






Best Original Song - "Let it Go", Frozen

Bono was on Jimmy Fallon last week and even HE doesn't think U2 has a shot at this; I wouldn't be stunned to see U2 on the stage but "Let it Go" is just a better song.

Who SHOULD win: Let it Go





I'm not going to get into the more technical categories, but suffice it to say that GRAVITY is a slam dunk in most of them. OK if Gravity doesn't win for "Best Visual Effects" THAT will be the biggest upset of the night.